WICHE Report Predicts Dramatic Decline in High
School Graduates

A recent report from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1992 to 2022,” predicts a long decline in the number of high school graduates in the United States, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. The report — which received support from the College Board and ACT — speculates that the growing numbers of the past 14 years will peak with this year’s graduating class, declining to a low-point around 2013-14, when the trend should reverse and the number of high school graduates will begin to gradually rise again.

Citing dramatic geographic shifts in population, WICHE President David Longanecker stated, “Many states in the West and South will struggle with explosive growth in both school enrollments and graduate numbers, while in the Northeast and Midwest, a high number of states will see declines as their populations age or move away. The face of our graduating classes is also changing. Today, white non-Hispanics make up a shrinking proportion of public school enrollments and graduates, while students from other groups — including some who have not been served well historically by our school systems or our colleges and universities, particularly Hispanics — are seeing their numbers rise.”

The report forecasts an increase in student diversity in the nation as a whole, driven by declines in the share of white non-Hispanic graduates and increases in Hispanic students, as well as Asian Pacific/Islanders. Although collecting data on race and ethnicity is controversial in certain contexts, according to Brian Prescott, WICHE senior research analyst, these data were essential to this study, as they have been for the past 30 years. Other factors that affect projections are birth rates, migration patterns, school options (non-public and home schooling) and immigration patterns.

How to best educate and prepare our changing student body presents a major challenge to our K-12 educational system and our postsecondary institutions, as well as to our nation as a whole. “If the United States is to maintain its place of leadership in a global economy, our society must educate all of our citizens, especially those students who have been poorly served in the past,” says College Board President Gaston Caperton. “The College Board is proud to support WICHE’s insightful research.”

Regions will see highly variable change. Between now and 2021-22, the number of high school graduates in the Northeast will shrink by 13 percent, they will drop by 7 percent in the Midwest, while the West will see growth of 5 percent, and the South will see double that. Nationally, the number will rise by 6 percent by 2022.

The current report is the seventh edition of WICHE's projections of high school graduates, and WICHE has long been regarded as the most comprehensive and reliable data source on the future size and composition of high school graduating classes across the country. The latest edition includes data on enrollments and graduates by state and for major racial/ethnic groups covering the period from 1991-92 through 2021-22. The reports also serve as vital tools for effective educational planning and policymaking.

The College Board and ACT provided both financial and human resources support for the production and dissemination of the report. The data in “Knocking at the College Door” will prove extremely useful to our members and to other educators and policymakers as they plan for the challenges ahead.
                                                   
The entire report and individual state profiles can be found by clicking here.